15 February 2015 - Unitarian exorcist

The term “escalation dominance” has been used in different senses. To me it means the ability to allow or provoke escalation of a conflict to any level without compromising your goals for the conflict. Russia has that kind of escalation dominance in Ukraine, for a wide range of interpretations of what Russia’s goals are.

Another way to look at it is: Escalating a conflict has both costs and risks for all sides. A large project to arm Ukraine has greater costs for Russia, but greater risks for the rest of the world, because Russia can choose to escalate to any level and still see itself as winning, while the West has set itself an escalation ceiling, “no military intervention.” A slow plan of tightening sanctions and isolation puts more risk on Russia and is safer for the rest of the world.