18 July 2010 - sound theories

Bayesian reasoning says that if you have a guess and some data, you can make a better guess. The axiomatic method says that if you make some stuff up, you can use that to make up more stuff. These are sound theories, at least according to our best theories of soundness (namely themselves), but they don’t say that if you know more you can learn more, only that if you suspect something you can work hard and come to suspect more. Nevertheless, mathematicians and scientists retain one advantage over conspiracy theorists: They conspire together.