15 December 2018 - unpredictable China

On the one hand, the upcoming generations of Chinese are more liberal and open to the world than the paranoid current leaders who remember Mao. On the other hand, the leaders also remember the Soviet Union and how it imploded during reform attempts, though they have forgotten that a booming economy has different problems than a fading light. In any case, most old successful people believe in doubling down on whatever has worked in the past. Meanwhile, the West has a convincing theory that a wealthy people will attain democracy, and has forgotten the vicissitudes and reverses, up to and including world wars, that can be part of the process. In other words, China’s future remains open. A new leader might relieve the pressure in the boiler, or Chairman Xi might raise the heat too high. If it eventually explodes, who gets hurt? Or, as Orwell imagined, the tech-surveillance state might successfully control society.